COP29 Hosts Launch Billion Dollar Fund, London Climate Resilience Review, and More

Today in Climate Proof:

Finance:

• Azerbaijan's Billion Dollar Climate Fund

• States, Feds Step Up Tribal Finance

Policy:

• London’s Not Ready For Climate Shocks

• Von der Leyen Promises Adaptation Action

Tech:

• Canada Tests Extreme Weather Attribution System

Research:

• Another round-up of papers and journal articles on all things climate adaptation

Azerbaijan's Billion Dollar Climate Fund

Time is ticking down to COP29 in Azerbaijan, and the host country’s bigwigs have laid down a marker on climate finance.

On July 19, ministers announced plans to raise US$1bn to help countries recover from climate-driven natural disasters, meet their climate action plans, and bolster mitigation and adaptation projects.

The Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) is to be capitalized by voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies, with Azerbaijan itself taking the lead — though the country has yet to say how much it will chip in.

The capital raised will be divvied up across climate priorities. Half the funds will be poured into climate projects in developing countries that “promote the adoption of clean energy technologies, improve energy efficiency, strengthen climate resilience of vulnerable populations, and facilitate the development of cutting-edge technologies.” The other half will be used to advance countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are the decarbonization plans that Paris Agreement signatories are obliged to prepare.

Moreover, 20% of the CFAF’s investment returns will be earmarked for a Rapid Response Funding Facility (2R2F), which will dole out grants and cheap capital to help climate-vulnerable countries deal with natural disasters.

Though it’s a welcome addition to climate resiliency financing, the size of the 2R2F will obviously depend on the success of CFAF’s investments — and no floor amount has been guaranteed.

Climate activists gave the fund short shrift, with particular ire focused on the voluntary nature of the contributions. “A $1 billion voluntary climate fund that gives polluters decision-making powers is greenwashing,” said Bronwen Tucker, Oil Change International public finance lead. “There is momentum to make polluters and the super-rich pay up for the trillions needed for climate action. Inviting fossil fuel interests to play-act as climate champions is a waste of time.”

Undoubtedly the CFAF is a retreat by the Azerbaijan presidency from a bolder proposal that would have raised climate finance via a mandatory levy on fossil fuel producers. Ministers backed off after running into resistance from certain countries. 

The CFAF will start operations once the initial US$1bn fundraise completes, and once 10 contributing countries commit as shareholders.

Separately, Mukhtar Babayev — COP29 President-Designate and Azerbaijan’s ecology and natural resources minister — made clear in a letter to delegates that action on climate finance would be “top priority.”  This puts the focus on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on finance, which ran into trouble during negotiations in Bonn earlier this year. Babayev said finance for adaptation and mitigation both “require a substantial increase”, making a deal on a new goal critical.

While Babayev said winning agreement on climate finance has been “challenging”, he made clear that the Azerbaijan presidency is “intensifying political engagement”, and wants to involve countries’ finance ministers in the negotiations at an early stage in discussions.

States, Feds Step Up Tribal Finance

Tribal communities in the US are among the least at fault for the country’s climate pollution — and the most at risk from its consequences. Now they’re getting big slugs of money from state and the federal governments to prepare for the climate shocks threatening their homes and livelihoods.

There are 574 federally recognized tribes in the country, and some 9.7 million people who identify at least in part as American Indian or Alaska Native (though only a fraction live in tribal communities). Twenty-eight of these tribes are located within Washington State, to whom the state government has just awarded US$52mn in grant funding for climate resilience purposes.

The Quinault Indian Nation is using US$13mn to move two villages — Taholah and Queets — beyond the reach of floods and potential tsunamis on the Olympic Coast. Other tribes will use funds to relocate vulnerable communities to higher grounds and bolster energy security, among other things.

This cash has been generated by the sale of carbon allowances to high-polluting businesses, as mandated under the state’s landmark Climate Commitment Act. It’s a powerful example of “Just Adaptation” in action — an approach to climate-proofing that recognizes the uneven distribution of climate impacts, and uses the resources of climate polluters to support those harmed by their emissions.

Washington State’s announcement follows one made by the US Department of the Interior earlier this month, pledging US$120mn for tribal climate resilience countrywide. The cash is intended to help tribes “plan for, adapt to, or respond to” climate threats through the safe relocation of community infrastructure.

Other Stuff

Green Climate Fund approves US$1bn of climate finance for developing countries (Green Climate Fund)

New platform leverages power of guarantees to boost private financing (World Bank Blogs)

NOAA recommends nearly US$220mn in funding for transformational habitat restoration and coastal resilience projects (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

GCA partners with the African Development Bank to strengthen climate resilience in South Sudan’s agricultural sector (Global Center on Adaptation)

World Bank announces US$21mn for financial and climate resilience in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (World Bank Group)

Global Fund for Coral Reefs approves more than US$25mn in additional funding for resilience action (Global Fund for Coral Reefs)

A comprehensive review of global supervisory climate stress tests (United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative)

How banks can transform physical climate risk into an opportunity (BCG)

Canadian businesses worry extreme weather will impact profits (KPMG)

London’s Not Ready For Climate Shocks

Preparing London for worsening climate risks is “non-negotiable.”

That’s the message from the final report of the London Climate Resilience Review, an independent stock take of the city’s preparedness for floods, heatwaves, and other climate-driven hazards.

Released last Wednesday, the report finds that while there are good examples of climate adaptation in the UK capital city, governments and businesses are ill-prepared for the “cascade” of disruptions that could be triggered by overlapping extreme weather events.

“Adaptation is non-negotiable,” writes Emma Howard Boyd, chair of the Review, in the report’s foreword. “As the Mayor begins a record third term and a new national government takes power, there has never been a better time to make smarter, more resilient choices in the long-term interest,” she adds.

The review was commissioned by Mayor Sadiq Khan in the wake of a series of climate shocks, including an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, when temperatures in London hit 40°C, water supplies dwindled, road surfaces melted, and rail infrastructure buckled. In England, there were 3,271 heat-related deaths in 2022, and 387 in the capital.

The 168-page report contains 50 recommendations on “avoiding the costs of being underprepared” and capturing opportunities “to improve the living standards of working people and deliver robust infrastructure.”

Urgent action is called for in six areas:

1. A London-wide action plan on heat risk

2. Preparation for surface water flooding

3. Accelerated work on “cascading risks and system interdependencies within and beyond London’s boundaries”

4. Enabling investment in climate resilience

5. Engaging Londoners on climate impacts, the risks they pose and adaptation options

6. A shared, coordinated regional vision and framework for adaptation

Mayor Khan said he accepted the report’s recommendations, saying: “We do not have a moment to waste.”

The London Fire Brigade, the Metropolitan Police, the Greater London Authority, businesses, financial institutions, and individuals all provided evidence for the final report.

Von der Leyen Promises Adaptation Action

The European Union elections may have ushered a phalanx of new, right-wing faces into parliament — but not everything changed. 

Last week, parliament voted Ursula von der Leyen back in for a second term as President of the European Commission with the backing of 401 out of 719 lawmakers. The President sets the agenda of the EU and presides over the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch. Whoever sits the big chair therefore has a lot of sway over the 27-member union’s policy direction — including on climate.

In a 31–page brochure outlining her agenda, Von der Leyen made clear that climate adaptation and resilience would be a priority: “One of the greatest risks to our security is the impact of climate change. Extreme weather continues to ravage ever greater areas of Europe through floods, fires and droughts, throughout the year and across our Union,” she wrote.

To address these risks, Von der Leyen wants to work toward a “European Civil Defence Mechanism” that can address “all facets of crisis and disaster management” and support community resilience building. She also pledged to “step up” efforts on climate resilience and preparedness:

“We will map the risks and preparedness needs for infrastructure, energy, water, food and land in cities and rural areas, as well as the need for data and early warning systems. This will be part of a European Climate Adaptation Plan, to support Member States notably on preparedness and planning and ensure regular science-based risk assessments,” she wrote.

To what extent she can push forward these initiatives remains to be seen. With a more fractious parliament and key member states expressing increased anti-EU sentiment, wrangling countries to support collective action on climate issues may be harder now than in the past.

Other Stuff

France's climate change ‘negligence’ puts human rights at risk, says Oxfam (Oxfam France)

Western Balkan economies need to strengthen climate resilience to protect people and boost growth (World Bank Group)

UK climate finance policies to accelerate in the first 100 days of the Labour government (King’s College London) 

NOAA, Reinsurance Association of America sign collaborative agreement to improve risk communication (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Governor Josh Green of Hawai’i announces Climate Advisory Team (Office of the Governor)

New Jersey publishes Extreme Heat Resilience Action Plan (nj.gov)

2nd major flooding in 11 years a sign Toronto is not adapting quickly enough, say climate experts (CBC)

Canada Tests Extreme Weather Attribution System

Ok, I don’t know whether this qualifies as “tech-y”, but it sure is cool: the Government of Canada has a new “rapid extreme weather event attribution system”, which it used to determine how much human influence on the climate increased the likelihood of June’s heat waves.

Last month, Canadian towns and cities sweltered under extraordinary temperatures. From June 17 to 19, average peak temperatures in Eastern Ontario hit 29°C, a full 7.4°C above average. The figures for Southern Quebec were 29.5°C and 10.7°C, respectively.

The new system released its analysis of these heat shocks earlier this month, and concluded that they were made two to 10 times more likely by human-caused climate change. 

How did they come up with these estimates? The system uses an ensemble of climate models to simulate both the climate of the 1800s (prior to the age of mass anthropogenic climate pollution) and the climate of today. After heat waves occur, scientists compare the number of similar events in the model-generated climates. 

The difference between the simulated numbers is then used to make a “statement of likelihood” that the event was (or was not) likely to have happened because of climate change. The seven statements of likelihood range from “far less likely” (at least 10X less likely to have happened due to human influence on the climate) and “far more likely” (at least 10X more likely to have happened due to human influence on the climate).

All the June heat waves were found to be “much more likely”, meaning between two to 10 times more likely than they would have been if there were no human-induced climate change.

The purpose of the system is to better prepare Canada for the dramatic changes in the weather expected as climate change worsens. “Our research is meant to give Canadians more information to use when deciding how to prepare for and adapt to the risks and effects of a changing climate,” the federal government says.

It’s another example of “attribution science” in action. This is a popular approach to measuring the increased likelihood, frequency, and damage of extreme weather events because of climate change. It has been embraced by climate advocates looking for ways to quantify fossil fuel-producers’ contributions to natural disasters, spurring initiatives like Vermont’s Climate Superfund.

The Canadian system is only analyzing heat waves for now. The government is working on enhancing the system to analyze extreme cold temperature events and extreme rainfall.

Other Stuff

2024 Climate Tech Funds Report (Pitchbook)

Kenyan climate-tech Bio-Logical raises US$1.3mn to support operations (The Kenyan Wall Street)

Up to 60% of Africa’s population is not protected by early warning systems for climate shocks (World Economic Forum)

Nestlé aims to strengthen coffee supply chain with new high-yielding Arabica variety (Nestlé)

Digital solutions advance soil health for sustainable food systems and climate resilience (CIMMYT)

RESEARCH

On the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for reducing disaster risk (Science of the Total Environment)

Climate change and urban sprawl: Unveiling the escalating flood risks in river deltas with a deep dive into the GBM river delta (Science of the Total Environment)

Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation (Nature Climate Change)

Toward climate-resilient roads: climate change adaptation measures for the road sector in Timor-Leste (Asian Development Bank)

Navigating New Horizons: A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing (United Nations Environment Programme Initiative)

Climate-Proofing Retail (National Retail Federation)

The Infrastructure Forum: Climate Adaptation & Resilience (The Infrastructure Forum)

Let’s talk about coastal relocation (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego)

Thanks for reading!

Louie Woodall
Editor